Reynold's Fantasy Wrap

Fantasy Football · Week 8

The games

One card per game: when, the line and where it opened, who the books expect to win, what the weather is doing at kickoff, who is hurt, and which of our ranked players are in it. Weather is shown, not modeled: only wind moves a projection, and the lines already know the forecast.

Built Nov 3, 1:17 AM ET · lines the median of 11 sportsbooks · forecasts and alerts from the National Weather Service · refreshes with every rankings run

Worth a look: Colts at Jaguars.

Other weeks: week 9 · week 7 · week 6 · week 5 · week 4 · week 3

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Panthers at Packers

Final: Panthers 19, Packers 27

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Panthers

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 6 weeks: throws more than the situation asks (+3.1% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 17% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Bryce Young QB11 · tier 3
  • Chuba Hubbard RB10 · tier 2
  • Tetairoa McMillan WR12 · tier 1
  • Jalen Coker WR16 · tier 2
  • Darren Waller TE25 · tier 2

Packers

Injury report

  • Matthew Golden WR · Questionable

How they play

Through 7 weeks: throws more than the situation asks (+3.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 19% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Jordan Love QB10 · tier 3
  • Josh Jacobs RB9 · tier 2
  • Christian Watson WR11 · tier 1
  • Matthew Golden WR17 · tier 2
  • Tucker Kraft TE4 · tier 1

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Ravens at Bills

Final: Ravens 10, Bills 36

Line
Bills by 3
Total
54.5 · opened 54
Implied
Bills 28.8 · Ravens 25.8
Win chance
Bills 61% · Ravens 39%

Bills on 14 days' rest against 7.

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Ravens

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 7 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-2.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 24% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Lamar Jackson QB5 · tier 2
  • Zay Flowers WR4 · tier 1
  • Derrick Henry RB8 · tier 2
  • Mark Andrews TE16 · tier 2
  • Ja'Kobi Lane WR55 · tier 3

Bills

Injury report

  • Dalton Kincaid TE · Questionable
  • DJ Moore WR · Questionable

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-0.6% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 20% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Josh Allen QB1 · tier 1
  • James Cook RB7 · tier 1
  • DJ Moore WR25 · tier 2
  • Dalton Kincaid TE10 · tier 1
  • Khalil Shakir WR34 · tier 3

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Titans at Bengals

Final: Titans 36, Bengals 43

Line
Bengals by 13.5 · opened Bengals by 10.5
Total
46 · opened 46.5
Implied
Bengals 29.8 · Titans 16.3
Win chance
Bengals 86% · Titans 14%
Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Titans

Injury report

  • Carnell Tate WR · Out
  • Tyjae Spears RB · Out

How they play

Through 7 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-4.5% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 20% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Cam Ward QB26 · tier 6
  • Tony Pollard RB19 · tier 2
  • Wan'Dale Robinson WR23 · tier 2
  • Elic Ayomanor WR57 · tier 3
  • Gunnar Helm TE36 · tier 3

Bengals

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 6 weeks: throws more than the situation asks (+5.2% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 25% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Joe Burrow QB3 · tier 1
  • Ja'Marr Chase WR5 · tier 1
  • Tee Higgins WR7 · tier 1
  • Chase Brown RB15 · tier 2
  • Samaje Perine RB36 · tier 4

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Cardinals at Cowboys

Final: Cardinals 33, Cowboys 30

Line
Cowboys by 7.5 · opened Cowboys by 6.75
Total
54.5
Implied
Cowboys 31 · Cardinals 23.5
Win chance
Cowboys 75% · Cardinals 25%
Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Cardinals

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 7 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-0.2% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 20% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Jacoby Brissett QB8 · tier 2
  • Trey McBride TE1 · tier 1
  • Michael Wilson WR15 · tier 2
  • Jeremiyah Love RB24 · tier 3
  • Kendrick Bourne WR44 · tier 3

Cowboys

Injury report

  • George Pickens WR · Questionable
  • Luke Schoonmaker TE · Questionable
  • Malik Davis RB · IR

How they play

Through 7 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+1.5% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 16% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Dak Prescott QB2 · tier 1
  • CeeDee Lamb WR3 · tier 1
  • Javonte Williams RB5 · tier 1
  • George Pickens WR9 · tier 1
  • Ryan Flournoy WR38 · tier 3

Sun 1:00 PM ET · division game

Vikings at Lions

Final: Vikings 15, Lions 19

Line
Lions by 3.5
Total
46
Implied
Lions 24.8 · Vikings 21.3
Win chance
Lions 62% · Vikings 38%
Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Vikings

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1.6% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 34% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Kyler Murray QB12 · tier 3
  • Justin Jefferson WR10 · tier 1
  • T.J. Hockenson TE6 · tier 1
  • Jordan Mason RB30 · tier 3
  • Aaron Jones RB31 · tier 3

Lions

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-0.5% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 24% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Jared Goff QB13 · tier 3
  • Jahmyr Gibbs RB1 · tier 1
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown WR6 · tier 1
  • Jameson Williams WR22 · tier 2
  • Sam LaPorta TE8 · tier 1

Sun 1:00 PM ET · division game

Colts at Jaguars

Final: Colts 7, Jaguars 42

Line
Jaguars by 10 · opened Jaguars by 9.5
Total
45.5 · opened 46.5
Implied
Jaguars 27.8 · Colts 17.8
Win chance
Jaguars 80% · Colts 20%

Jaguars on 14 days' rest against 7.

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Colts

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 7 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-3.9% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 18% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Daniel Jones QB28 · tier 6
  • Jonathan Taylor RB18 · tier 2
  • Tyler Warren TE9 · tier 1
  • Keenan Allen WR45 · tier 3
  • Josh Downs WR50 · tier 3

Jaguars

Injury report

  • Jakobi Meyers WR · Questionable

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1.9% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 19% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Trevor Lawrence QB7 · tier 2
  • Bhayshul Tuten RB17 · tier 2
  • Parker Washington WR13 · tier 2
  • Brenton Strange TE12 · tier 1
  • Jakobi Meyers WR43 · tier 3

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Raiders at Jets

Final: Raiders 38, Jets 33

Line
Jets by 1.5
Total
46.5 · opened 45.5
Implied
Jets 24 · Raiders 22.5
Win chance
Jets 54% · Raiders 46%
Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Raiders

Injury report

  • Jack Bech WR · Questionable

How they play

Through 7 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 25% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Kirk Cousins QB21 · tier 4
  • Ashton Jeanty RB14 · tier 2
  • Brock Bowers TE2 · tier 1
  • Tre Tucker WR26 · tier 2
  • Michael Mayer TE26 · tier 2

Jets

Injury report

  • Breece Hall RB · Questionable

How they play

Through 7 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-2% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 21% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Geno Smith QB18 · tier 4
  • Braelon Allen RB13 · tier 2
  • Breece Hall RB16 · tier 2
  • Garrett Wilson WR14 · tier 2
  • Omar Cooper WR37 · tier 3

Sun 1:00 PM ET · division game

Browns at Steelers

Final: Browns 6, Steelers 27

Line
Steelers by 3.5
Total
39 · opened 39.5
Implied
Steelers 21.3 · Browns 17.8
Win chance
Steelers 64% · Browns 36%
Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Browns

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 7 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-0.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 25% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Deshaun Watson QB24 · tier 5
  • Quinshon Judkins RB23 · tier 3
  • Denzel Boston WR29 · tier 2
  • KC Concepcion WR30 · tier 2
  • Harold Fannin TE15 · tier 2

Steelers

Injury report

  • Ben Skowronek WR · Questionable

How they play

Through 7 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+2.8% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 21% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Aaron Rodgers QB23 · tier 5
  • Jaylen Warren RB11 · tier 2
  • DK Metcalf WR18 · tier 2
  • Germie Bernard WR31 · tier 2
  • Rico Dowdle RB29 · tier 3

Sun 1:00 PM ET · division game

Falcons at Buccaneers

Final: Falcons 0, Buccaneers 16

Line
Buccaneers by 2 · opened Buccaneers by 2.5
Total
43.5 · opened 45
Implied
Buccaneers 22.8 · Falcons 20.8
Win chance
Buccaneers 54% · Falcons 46%
Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Falcons

Injury report

  • Olamide Zaccheaus WR · Questionable
  • Brian Robinson RB · Out

How they play

Through 7 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-5.1% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 22% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Michael Penix QB22 · tier 5
  • Bijan Robinson RB2 · tier 1
  • Drake London WR8 · tier 1
  • Kyle Pitts TE13 · tier 2
  • Jahan Dotson WR65 · tier 4

Buccaneers

Injury report

  • Emeka Egbuka WR · Out
  • Kenny Gainwell RB · Questionable

How they play

Through 7 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-3.8% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 19% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Baker Mayfield QB20 · tier 4
  • Bucky Irving RB20 · tier 2
  • Chris Godwin WR32 · tier 2
  • Cade Otton TE19 · tier 2
  • Ted Hurst WR54 · tier 3

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Chargers at Rams

Final: Chargers 9, Rams 24

Line
Rams by 6.5
Total
45.5 · opened 45
Implied
Rams 26 · Chargers 19.5
Win chance
Rams 72% · Chargers 28%

Chargers on 14 days' rest against 7.

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Chargers

Injury report

  • Alec Ingold RB · IR
  • Trey Lance QB · IR

How they play

Through 6 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-7.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 24% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Justin Herbert QB15 · tier 3
  • Ladd McConkey WR36 · tier 3
  • Omarion Hampton RB32 · tier 3
  • Quentin Johnston WR48 · tier 3
  • Tre Harris WR52 · tier 3

Rams

Injury report

  • Colby Parkinson TE · Questionable
  • Blake Grupe K · IR

How they play

Through 7 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+0.6% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 15% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Matthew Stafford QB16 · tier 3
  • Puka Nacua WR2 · tier 1
  • Kyren Williams RB6 · tier 1
  • Blake Corum RB27 · tier 3
  • Tyler Higbee TE14 · tier 2

Sun 4:25 PM ET · division game

Chiefs at Broncos

Final: Chiefs 24, Broncos 28

Line
Chiefs by 1
Total
41.5 · opened 40.5
Implied
Broncos 20.3 · Chiefs 21.3
Win chance
Broncos 49% · Chiefs 51%
Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Chiefs

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+2.8% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 16% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Patrick Mahomes QB14 · tier 3
  • Kenneth Walker RB3 · tier 1
  • Rashee Rice WR20 · tier 2
  • Travis Kelce TE7 · tier 1
  • Xavier Worthy WR49 · tier 3

Broncos

Injury report

  • Jaylen Waddle WR · Questionable

How they play

Through 7 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 29% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Bo Nix QB17 · tier 4
  • Jonah Coleman RB22 · tier 3
  • Jaylen Waddle WR39 · tier 3
  • Courtland Sutton WR42 · tier 3
  • J.K. Dobbins RB35 · tier 4

Sun 4:25 PM ET · division game

Patriots at Dolphins

Final: Patriots 24, Dolphins 19

Line
Patriots by 7
Total
41.5 · opened 44
Implied
Dolphins 17.3 · Patriots 24.3
Win chance
Dolphins 25% · Patriots 75%

Patriots on 10 days' rest against 7.

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Patriots

Injury report

  • A.J. Brown WR · Questionable
  • TreVeyon Henderson RB · Questionable
  • Reggie Gilliam RB · IR

How they play

Through 7 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+0.6% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 23% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Drake Maye QB6 · tier 2
  • Rhamondre Stevenson RB12 · tier 2
  • Hunter Henry TE5 · tier 1
  • A.J. Brown WR28 · tier 2
  • DeMario Douglas WR41 · tier 3

Dolphins

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 6 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-8.8% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 17% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Malik Willis QB25 · tier 5
  • Ollie Gordon RB21 · tier 3
  • Malik Washington WR33 · tier 3
  • Caleb Douglas WR47 · tier 3
  • Greg Dulcich TE21 · tier 2

Sun 8:20 PM ET · division game

Eagles at Commanders

Final: Eagles 10, Commanders 27

Line
Commanders by 6 · opened Commanders by 5.5
Total
40.5 · opened 40
Implied
Commanders 23.3 · Eagles 17.3
Win chance
Commanders 70% · Eagles 30%

Commanders on 13 days' rest against 6.

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Eagles

Injury report

  • Dontayvion Wicks WR · Out
  • DeVonta Smith WR · Out

How they play

Through 7 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1.6% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 11% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Joe Milton QB29 · tier 6
  • Tanner McKee QB27 · tier 6
  • Dallas Goedert TE3 · tier 1
  • Saquon Barkley RB25 · tier 3
  • Makai Lemon WR24 · tier 2

Commanders

Injury report

  • Treylon Burks WR · Questionable
  • John Bates TE · Questionable

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-0.8% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 17% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Jayden Daniels QB4 · tier 2
  • Stefon Diggs WR21 · tier 2
  • Rachaad White RB26 · tier 3
  • Antonio Williams WR46 · tier 3
  • Chig Okonkwo TE18 · tier 2

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Bears at Seahawks

Final: Bears 34, Seahawks 17

Line
Seahawks by 3
Total
46.5
Implied
Seahawks 24.8 · Bears 21.8
Win chance
Seahawks 61% · Bears 39%

Bears on 11 days' rest against 8.

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Bears

Injury report

  • Kyle Monangai RB · Out
  • Hayden Large TE · IR

How they play

Through 7 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (0% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 24% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Caleb Williams QB9 · tier 3
  • D'Andre Swift RB4 · tier 1
  • Luther Burden WR19 · tier 2
  • Colston Loveland TE11 · tier 1
  • Rome Odunze WR35 · tier 3

Seahawks

Injury report

  • Rashid Shaheed WR · Out
  • Drew Lock QB · Questionable
  • Jadarian Price RB · IR
  • Robbie Ouzts RB · IR

How they play

Through 7 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-4.2% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 27% of dropbacks.

Our players

  • Sam Darnold QB19 · tier 4
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 · tier 1
  • Zach Charbonnet RB28 · tier 3
  • AJ Barner TE17 · tier 2
  • Cooper Kupp WR53 · tier 3

How to read it

The weather strip is colored so you can read it before the numbers. Grey is a roof. Green is a day nothing needs saying about. Amber is worth a look: wind of 15 mph or more, a real chance of rain, or an active advisory at the venue. Red is rough: 20 mph wind, rain more likely than not, a warning from the Weather Service, or a hard freeze. The forecast is the kickoff hour at the stadium, and the alerts are the Weather Service's own, in their words.

Only wind changes a ranking. Rain was measured over two seasons and does cost points in a real downpour, but not in a way that reorders anyone against the field, and the sportsbooks' lines the rankings lean on already carry the forecast. So the strip is a tool for you, not a thumb on the model.

The line is the middle of what several sportsbooks posted, in the home team's favor when negative; "opened" is Wednesday's first pull, so a move is news the market priced since. Win chance comes from the moneylines with the books' cut removed, the same numbers the survivor tool uses. Our players are this week's ranked players from each side with their half-PPR projection and, where the books have a full line on them, the market's number. Nothing here is betting advice.