Fantasy Football· Through week 8

Trends

Whose role is moving. For every player, his last two games are averaged and set against his earlier games, on the three things that stick week to week: how much he is on the field, his share of the team's work, and what his touches were worth. Surging is a role that grew on every axis and is now big enough to start.

From the weekly usage files · the model's own weighting puts about two thirds of a player's signal in his last two games, which is why that is the window · refreshes every Tuesday

Every number is before → now, per game. Now is the last two weeks (weeks 7 and 8); a player who did not play week 8 is left out. A red tag beside a name is today's roster designation: the usage was real, and he is hurt now. Before is every game he played earlier than those (weeks 1 to 6). Exp pts is what his touches were worth at average outcomes, the same number as the usage tables; Points is what he actually scored. 39 quarterbacks have three or more games.

Moving up

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Attempts
Kyler Murray Out MIN	MIN	12.1 → 15.5	9.9 → 16.9	25.3 → 26.5

Role up, points not yet

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Attempts
Cam Ward TEN	TEN	14.8 → 19.3	11.4 → 16.0	29.5 → 35.5

Moving down

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Attempts
Lamar Jackson NA BAL	BAL	16.4 → 5.8	20.1 → 9.4	25.3 → 10.5
Baker Mayfield TB	TB	16.1 → 7.0	11.7 → 4.0	32.0 → 7.0
Bryce Young CAR	CAR	21.8 → 13.1	22.1 → 7.9	40.2 → 34.0
Matthew Stafford LAR	LAR	19.0 → 10.3	17.7 → 12.9	41.5 → 27.0
Jared Goff DET	DET	21.1 → 14.3	23.0 → 13.5	38.2 → 28.5
Daniel Jones IND	IND	17.5 → 10.9	10.2 → 5.0	36.3 → 25.0
Drake Maye NE	NE	19.3 → 13.9	18.5 → 24.9	30.5 → 25.5
Aaron Rodgers PIT	PIT	17.7 → 13.6	16.5 → 9.0	38.8 → 27.5

Did not play in week 8, so no trend either way: Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, J.J. McCarthy, Jalen Hurts, Jalon Daniels, Jameis Winston, Kenny Pickett, Marcus Mariota, Tyler Shough, Tyson Bagent.

Moving up

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Carry share
Jonah Coleman Surging DEN	DEN	5.5 → 14.1	6.7 → 13.1	23% → 57%	18% → 42%
Tony Pollard Surging TEN	TEN	12.9 → 21.3	7.9 → 31.1	56% → 78%	67% → 79%
Braelon Allen Surging NYJ	NYJ	9.3 → 17.5	8.7 → 19.4	65% → 81%	51% → 82%
D'Andre Swift Surging CHI	CHI	17.3 → 23.3	15.8 → 21.9	58% → 82%	45% → 75%
Kenny Gainwell TB	TB	4.9 → 10.8	4.0 → 11.4	— → —	13% → 37%
Rachaad White Surging WAS	WAS	7.5 → 12.2	7.0 → 13.3	49% → 58%	23% → 42%
Tyler Allgeier ARI	ARI	8.1 → 11.5	5.6 → 20.0	52% → 53%	31% → 37%
Blake Corum LAR	LAR	6.8 → 10.1	8.0 → 15.0	28% → 38%	32% → 43%
Rico Dowdle PIT	PIT	8.0 → 11.2	5.0 → 11.6	37% → 45%	33% → 38%

Role up, points not yet

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Carry share
Mike Washington LV	LV	4.5 → 15.9	4.2 → 5.5	20% → 43%	23% → 56%
Ollie Gordon MIA	MIA	10.7 → 19.2	11.4 → 11.9	56% → 83%	42% → 72%

Moving down

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Carry share
Aaron Jones MIN	MIN	14.8 → 5.0	12.8 → 4.0	73% → 33%	65% → 28%
Ashton Jeanty LV	LV	18.6 → 9.8	14.6 → 13.2	70% → 56%	63% → 27%
Derrick Henry BAL	BAL	19.3 → 11.4	18.7 → 9.2	58% → 48%	71% → 61%
Jonathan Taylor IND	IND	19.8 → 12.8	18.5 → 11.3	82% → 65%	74% → 43%
J.K. Dobbins DEN	DEN	11.3 → 4.5	7.6 → 4.8	44% → 22%	55% → 27%
Kyren Williams LAR	LAR	17.5 → 12.3	17.3 → 14.8	70% → 60%	55% → 51%
Roschon Johnson CHI	CHI	9.9 → 4.7	7.6 → 2.3	30% → 17%	22% → 11%
MarShawn Lloyd Questionable GB	GB	8.7 → 3.9	6.5 → 3.3	39% → 26%	39% → 22%

Did not play in week 8, so no trend either way: AJ Dillon, Alvin Kamara, Breece Hall, Brian Robinson, Cam Skattebo, Chris Brooks, Christian McCaffrey, CJ Donaldson, Dameon Pierce, David Montgomery, De'Von Achane, Demond Claiborne, Devin Singletary, Emanuel Wilson, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jaleel McLaughlin, Kaelon Black, Kaleb Johnson, Kaytron Allen, Kendre Miller, Kyle Monangai, Lew Nichols, Najee Harris, Raheim Sanders, RJ Harvey, Sean Tucker, Tank Bigsby, Travis Etienne, Travis Homer, TreVeyon Henderson, Tyjae Spears, Tyler Badie, Tyrone Tracy, Will Shipley, Woody Marks.

Moving up

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Target share	Catches
Ja'Marr Chase Surging CIN16/23 catches	CIN	11.1 → 17.9	13.3 → 20.1	78% → 92%	22% → 30%	16 of 23
Makai Lemon Surging PHI13/17 catches	PHI	5.4 → 10.8	3.5 → 12.4	72% → 93%	16% → 26%	13 of 17
Rashee Rice KC14/17 catches	KC	4.8 → 10.0	9.6 → 13.6	81% → 67%	11% → 30%	14 of 17
Jameson Williams DET9/15 catches	DET	9.0 → 14.1	9.7 → 19.3	90% → 84%	15% → 27%	9 of 15
Elic Ayomanor Surging TEN6/12 catches	TEN	4.2 → 8.2	3.8 → 5.4	60% → 77%	9% → 18%	6 of 12
Treylon Burks Out WAS7/11 catches	WAS	4.9 → 8.6	5.8 → 9.1	50% → 61%	10% → 18%	7 of 11

Role up, points not yet

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Target share	Catches
Denzel Boston CLE9/19 catches	CLE	8.9 → 16.2	10.5 → 5.5	92% → 85%	19% → 26%	9 of 19
Jakobi Meyers JAX7/13 catches	JAX	5.5 → 11.3	8.0 → 7.1	81% → 65%	14% → 21%	7 of 13
Matthew Golden GB13/25 catches	GB	14.8 → 19.4	14.3 → 12.1	83% → 86%	26% → 31%	13 of 25

Moving down

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Target share	Catches
Jalen Coker CAR3/9 catches	CAR	13.0 → 5.3	14.0 → 6.0	68% → 76%	25% → 14%	3 of 9
George Pickens Questionable DAL6/10 catches	DAL	12.6 → 7.5	10.9 → 9.8	85% → 59%	22% → 19%	6 of 10
Tre Harris LAC5/7 catches	LAC	8.7 → 3.9	7.5 → 3.6	93% → 48%	16% → 15%	5 of 7
Keenan Allen IND10/10 catches	IND	10.5 → 5.7	8.3 → 7.4	61% → 51%	23% → 19%	10 of 10
Amon-Ra St. Brown Questionable DET16/19 catches	DET	17.3 → 12.6	17.1 → 14.4	88% → 75%	31% → 34%	16 of 19
Tetairoa McMillan CAR10/17 catches	CAR	14.9 → 10.4	14.6 → 7.4	84% → 79%	27% → 26%	10 of 17
Malik Washington MIA8/9 catches	MIA	10.2 → 6.9	7.7 → 8.8	85% → 77%	28% → 17%	8 of 9

Did not play in week 8, so no trend either way: A.J. Brown, Barion Brown, Ben Skowronek, Brandin Cooks, Braxton Berrios, Bryce Lance, Carnell Tate, Chris Blair, Chris Moore, Chris Olave, Cody White, Darnell Mooney, Davante Adams, David Moore, Deebo Samuel, Devaughn Vele, DeVonta Smith, Devontez Walker, Dontayvion Wicks, Emeka Egbuka, Isaac TeSlaa, Jacob Cowing, Jalen Brooks, Jared Wayne, Jaylin Lane, Jaylin Noel, Jordan Watkins, Kameron Johnson, KaVontae Turpin, Kayshon Boutte, KhaDarel Hodge, Mack Hollins, Malachi Fields, Malik Benson, Malik McClain, Malik Nabers, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Marvin Harrison, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans, Nico Collins, Omar Cooper, Pat Bryant, Rashid Shaheed, Roman Wilson, Romeo Doubs, Ryan Miller, Skyy Moore, Tai Felton, Terry McLaurin, Tre' Harris, Tyquan Thornton, Xavier Hutchinson, Xavier Smith.

Moving up

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Target share	Catches
Harold Fannin CLE16/21 catches	CLE	6.5 → 13.3	7.3 → 14.3	88% → 85%	17% → 28%	16 of 21
Colston Loveland CHI14/21 catches	CHI	7.3 → 12.7	5.5 → 12.2	85% → 89%	16% → 33%	14 of 21
Tyler Warren IND11/19 catches	IND	8.1 → 13.4	9.3 → 10.8	90% → 83%	22% → 27%	11 of 19
Gunnar Helm TEN8/13 catches	TEN	3.4 → 7.6	2.5 → 8.0	78% → 74%	10% → 18%	8 of 13
Dalton Kincaid BUF11/14 catches	BUF	5.8 → 9.8	8.3 → 12.0	67% → 65%	16% → 23%	11 of 14

Moving down

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Target share	Catches
Sam LaPorta DET4/7 catches	DET	11.2 → 4.7	12.6 → 3.6	88% → 95%	19% → 13%	4 of 7

Did not play in week 8, so no trend either way: Bauer Sharp, Ben Sinnott, Brayden Willis, Brevin Jordan, Brock Wright, Cade Otton, Cade Stover, Cameron Latu, Colby Parkinson, Cole Kmet, Dalton Schultz, Drew Sample, Durham Smythe, E.J. Jenkins, Eric Saubert, Erick All, Feleipe Franks, Foster Moreau, Gavin Bartholomew, George Kittle, Hayden Rucci, Hunter Long, Ian Thomas, Isaiah Likely, Jake Ferguson, Jeremy Ruckert, Johnny Mundt, Jonnu Smith, Josh Oliver, Juwan Johnson, Luke Farrell, Luke Schoonmaker, Mo Alie-Cox, Noah Fant, Oscar Delp, Sam Roush, Tanner Hudson, Terrance Ferguson, Theo Johnson, Zach Ertz.

How to read it

A trend is both halves moving: the role, measured as expected points from his touches, and the points that actually came. And it has to be a real role: at least seven expected points a game and fifteen percent of the team's targets or carries now, or twenty-five attempts for a quarterback, so a man who went from one target a game to three never makes the list. Rising is expected points up three or more a game with snaps or share up, and actual points up with them. Surging is the same but bigger, up four on expected, eight points of snap share and five of work share, now worth eight or more a game, whether the name is new or a veteran's, and it needs two games on each side, so nobody surges before week 4. Fading is the reverse.

Role up, points not yet is the honest third list: the touches grew and the points did not. That is either the buy-low case or a player who cannot hold onto the ball, and two games cannot tell you which, so this page does not call it a trend. Every row shows both sides of the comparison: Exp pts is expected points a game, what his touches were worth at average outcomes; Points is what he actually scored; Snaps and his share of the work are why it moved. When Points lags Exp pts by three or more a game, the points have not come yet. Nothing here moves a ranking. The rankings already weight recent games this way.