Scorecard
How we actually did
Every ranking published here gets scored after the games: start exactly who we said, and see what share of a perfect week you'd have had. The same test is run on two lists anybody could have used instead — the betting market's, and the plain box score — so the gap between the columns is the story. Nothing is left out. A week where the model was beaten appears the same way a week where it won does.
| Week | Ours | Market | Box score | No Vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 77% | 75% | 78% | |
| 83% | — | 73% | — | |
| 78% | 71% | 73% | 78% | |
| 73% | 76% | 72% | 74% | |
| 79% | 78% | 73% | 78% | |
| 77% | 80% | 74% | 72% | |
| 81% | 77% | 77% | 76% | |
| 78% | 76% | 79% | 75% | |
| Season | 78% | 76% · 7 wk | 75% | 76% |
Week 8
scored 2026-11-03This week we beat the market by 2 percentage points, and the box score beat us by 1 percentage point. Vegas earned its place: +3.
| Position | Ours | Market | Box score | No Vegas | Got right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks top 12 | 74% | 75% | 79% | 70% | 7 of 12 |
| Running Backs top 24 | 82% | 79% | 79% | 77% | 17 of 24 |
| Wide Receivers top 36 | 78% | 77% | 79% | 75% | 24 of 36 |
| Tight Ends top 12 | 74% | 67% | 81% | 74% | 6 of 12 |
| Kickers top 12 | 62% | 74% | 60% | 59% | 4 of 12 |
| Defenses top 12 | 82% | — | 63% | — | 8 of 12 |
Quarterbacks
Ranked high, bustedLamar Jackson — ranked 5, finished 27Jacoby Brissett — ranked 8, finished 25Jayden Daniels — ranked 4, finished 14
Ranked low, broke outCam Ward — ranked 26, finished 4Kirk Cousins — ranked 21, finished 2Malik Willis — ranked 25, finished 15
Running Backs
Ranked high, bustedPierre Strong — ranked 33, finished 66Jeremiyah Love — ranked 24, finished 52Bijan Robinson — ranked 2, finished 28
Ranked low, broke outEmmett Johnson — ranked 61, finished 6Dylan Laube — ranked 86, finished 32Tyler Allgeier — ranked 53, finished 1
Wide Receivers
Ranked high, bustedZay Flowers — ranked 4, finished 88Drake London — ranked 8, finished 77Tre Tucker — ranked 26, finished 89
Ranked low, broke outChimere Dike — ranked 111, finished 8Simi Fehoko — ranked 170, finished 70Devin Duvernay — ranked 163, finished 68
Tight Ends
Ranked high, bustedKyle Pitts — ranked 13, finished 41Tyler Higbee — ranked 14, finished 39Eli Raridon — ranked 24, finished 49
Ranked low, broke outBen Yurosek — ranked 84, finished 32Eli Stowers — ranked 66, finished 18Nate Boerkircher — ranked 49, finished 11
FLEX
Ranked high, bustedZay Flowers — ranked 8, finished 194Drake London — ranked 23, finished 172DK Metcalf — ranked 41, finished 181
Ranked low, broke outChimere Dike — ranked 233, finished 26Sione Vaki — ranked 270, finished 85Emmett Johnson — ranked 193, finished 11
Kickers
Ranked high, bustedJoshua Karty — ranked 2, finished 28Evan McPherson — ranked 3, finished 21Trey Smack — ranked 6, finished 24
Ranked low, broke outJason Sanders — ranked 21, finished 3Cameron Dicker — ranked 24, finished 7Joey Slye — ranked 29, finished 14
Defenses
Ranked high, bustedCIN Defense — ranked 1, finished 16SEA Defense — ranked 7, finished 22KC Defense — ranked 13, finished 27
Ranked low, broke outTEN Defense — ranked 28, finished 11BUF Defense — ranked 19, finished 4DAL Defense — ranked 20, finished 9
Statistical detail: rank correlation
| Position | Ours | Market | Box score | No Vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks | 0.328 | 0.316 | 0.288 | 0.311 |
| Running Backs | 0.757 | 0.568 | 0.699 | 0.721 |
| Wide Receivers | 0.718 | 0.473 | 0.699 | 0.704 |
| Tight Ends | 0.735 | 0.427 | 0.709 | 0.723 |
| FLEX | 0.641 | — | 0.613 | — |
| Kickers | -0.009 | 0.183 | 0.094 | -0.047 |
| Defenses | 0.445 | — | 0.095 | — |
How to read it
Imagine you started exactly the players we said, no thinking. Add up their points. Now compare that to the most points anybody could have scored that week with a crystal ball. That share is the grade. An 83% means our starters scored 83% of what perfect would have. "Starters" means the top twelve quarterbacks, twenty-four backs, thirty-six receivers and twelve tight ends on each list — a full twelve-team league's worth — and points are real box-score stats in half-PPR scoring.
The two columns beside ours are the same question asked of two other lists. Box score is "what if you just started whoever has scored the most so far this season" — the list most people actually use. The market is "what if you started whoever the sportsbooks project highest" — their yards, catches and touchdown odds turned into points. Same players, same week, same maths. So the numbers read like a race, and the gap is the story: ten points clear of the box score means the model added real information over just reading last week's stats. The market only prices the top twenty-odd at a position, so where it covers fewer players than we name, both it and we are graded on that shorter list and the cell says so.
One thing to know about the scale. Even a lazy list captures about 70%, because starters all score something. So read the grade against the other two columns, not against 100. "Got right" is the number a fantasy player feels: of the twelve quarterbacks who really finished top twelve, how many were in our top twelve.
Kickers and defenses get the same treatment on their own rows, but they are not in the week grade: that model is weaker by design, the list says so, and the market does not price them.
"Without Vegas" is what the grade would have been with no betting lines in the model. The published rankings lean on them when we have them; the model-only version is kept and graded on the same games, so you can see every week whether Vegas earned its place.