Survivor

This week's five

odds as of Nov 8, 2026 · 11 sportsbooks averaged

Picks post Wednesday morning and refresh Saturday morning once the week's lines are in. A pick locks the moment its game kicks off and stays here with the result, win or lose. These are Saturday's, the final ones for the week.

1 Chiefs vs Jets Sportsbooks' win chance 81% Why: you won't need them again
2 49ers vs Raiders Sportsbooks' win chance 80% Why: you won't miss them later
3 Seahawks vs Cardinals Sportsbooks' win chance 77% Why: you'd like them back in week 13, but it's a small price
4 Jaguars at RavensWon 33–10 Sportsbooks' win chance 81% Played Thursday night and won 33–10. Published at 81% to win; hold them if you can — week 12 is thin and they're the best option in it.
5 Bears vs Buccaneers Sportsbooks' win chance 70% Why: hold them if you can — week 11 is thin and they're the best option in it

The win chances come from the sportsbooks (11 of them, averaged, with their cut taken out). The line under each pick is ours: what using that team now costs you later in the season. The Ravens and Jaguars already played this week.

This week, in plain English

The pick is the Chiefs, at home against the Jets, at 81% — and no, that's not the biggest favorite on the board. The Bengals are 91% this week, but the plan has a better use for them later. Giving up a few points today to keep that in your pocket is the whole game.

Prefer to hold the Chiefs? The 49ers are at home against the Raiders at 80%, and you won't miss them later either. Below the top five this week you're either taking a worse number or burning a team you'll wish you had.

Tempting, but leave them alone: the Lions (73% on the road at the Dolphins, but week 14 needs them). The Lions at 73% today are the Lions at 86% in week 14 — and you only get to use them once.

From here the road runs Rams in week 10, Bears in week 11, Jaguars in week 12, Broncos in week 13, and on to week 18. That's a plan, not a promise — it gets redone every Wednesday and again on Saturday once the odds settle. The Ravens and Jaguars have already played this week, so they're off the board. Two things worth knowing: the win chances come from the sportsbooks, not us (11 of them, averaged, with their cut taken out), and what's ours is the order — which team to use in which week. And most pools are over by week 10. A good plan gets you there more often; nothing gets you there every time.

This note is written from the numbers each Wednesday and refreshed Saturday. Reynold hasn't changed a word of it.

Your season

Tell it which team you've used each week and it plans around them: your pick for this week, and a road to week 18. If your pool lets you sit one week out, say so and the plan spends the bye in the thinnest week it is allowed in. It stays on your phone; nothing is sent anywhere.

Start with the weeks already played — say which team you took in each. There are 8.

Bye week

Week 1Team you took in week 1
Week 2Team you took in week 2
Week 3Team you took in week 3
Week 4Team you took in week 4
Week 5Team you took in week 5
Week 6Team you took in week 6
Week 7Team you took in week 7
Week 8Team you took in week 8
Week 9 this week
Take the Bengals at the Falcons — 91% to win. You won't miss them later.
Week 10plan: Rams at Cardinals · 76%
Week 11plan: Bears vs Saints · 83% · no line yet
Week 12plan: Jaguars vs Titans · 90% · no line yet
Week 13plan: Broncos vs Dolphins · 86% · no line yet
Week 14plan: Lions vs Titans · 86% · no line yet
Week 15plan: Packers vs Dolphins · 78% · no line yet
Week 16plan: Vikings vs Commanders · 79% · no line yet
Week 17plan: 49ers vs Eagles · 79% · no line yet
Week 18plan: Bills vs Jets · 89% · no line yet

Saved on this phone or computer only.

How to use this

The short version. Take the number one pick. If you've already used that team, fill in your season above and take your number one instead.

Why we'd ever skip a favorite. You get each team once. A 78% favorite you spend today might be an 86% favorite in week 12, when nothing else is above 65%. So under every pick we say what it costs you later — "you won't miss them" or "hold them if you can." The five up top are the picks that buy the most safety today for the least of your season.

What it doesn't know. Who else is in your pool. In a big pool the smart pick is sometimes the one fewer people are on, because when a popular favorite loses, half the pool goes with it. That's coming; it isn't here yet.

How honest this is. We tested it on seven past seasons against the obvious strategy — "biggest favorite you haven't used yet." It survives about one percent more often per week, and that compounds. Real, and small. And no plan, ours or anyone's, made it past week 12 in more than one of those seven seasons. Lines move until kickoff, so the page refreshes Saturday morning. Every week gets graded on the scorecard, wins and losses alike.

Earlier weeks

How they did

Week	Our pick	Win prob	Also
Week 8	Bengals vs Titans	84%	Jaguars, Patriots, Cowboys, Rams
Week 7	Texans vs Giants	80%	Vikings, Jets, Cowboys, Broncos
Week 6	Rams vs Cardinals	86%	Chiefs, 49ers, Patriots, Colts
Week 5	Cowboys vs Buccaneers	80%	Texans, Bengals, Jaguars, Lions
Week 4	Ravens vs Titans	85%	Vikings, Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs
Week 3	Chiefs at Dolphins	83%	Seahawks, 49ers, Bills, Lions
Week 2	49ers vs Dolphins	87%	Buccaneers, Ravens, Rams, Eagles